The Tory Leadership Race: James Cleverly’s Rise Amid Controversy

As the Conservative Party gears up for the next round of voting in the leadership race, the spotlight is firmly on James Cleverly. The Braintree MP, who has recently emerged as a dark horse in the contest, is experiencing a post-conference surge in support, but not without facing significant criticism. The recent debacle surrounding the Chagos Islands has intensified scrutiny on Cleverly, raising questions about his leadership capabilities and future prospects within the party.

Cleverly’s Conference Boost

Cleverly’s recent performance at the Conservative Party Conference has turned heads and shifted the dynamics of the leadership race. Following a speech that resonated with many party members, he has seen a notable increase in grassroots support. According to ConservativeHome’s latest survey, Cleverly has gained a 12-point boost, bringing his support to 25%, while his closest rival, Robert Jenrick, has seen a decline to 19%. This shift marks a significant change in the landscape of the leadership contest, as Cleverly supplants Jenrick, who was previously seen as a frontrunner.

Ex-Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch remains in the lead with 32% support, despite experiencing a slight drop from 36%. Meanwhile, Tom Tugendhat appears to have stabilized in a distant fourth place with 12%. The fluctuating support among candidates highlights the unpredictable nature of the race, with Cleverly’s recent rise indicating that the contest is far from settled.

The Chagos Islands Controversy

Despite Cleverly’s newfound momentum, his critics have seized upon his involvement in the negotiations regarding the Chagos Islands. The UK Government’s decision to hand over the islands to Mauritius has sparked a fierce debate, with many attributing blame to Cleverly for initiating talks during his tenure as Foreign Secretary. A source from the One Nation group expressed concerns about Cleverly’s leadership potential, stating, “There’s one thing being a nice guy, there’s another being a leader and a Prime Minister.” This sentiment reflects a broader skepticism among some party members regarding Cleverly’s ability to navigate complex political challenges.

Cleverly announced in November 2022 that negotiations had begun regarding the sovereignty of the British Indian Ocean Territory, which includes the Chagos Archipelago. Critics argue that this decision compromises national security and undermines the UK’s position in the region, especially as China expands its influence over Mauritius. In response to the backlash, Cleverly has accused Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer of being “weak” for supporting the handover, framing the issue as a failure of leadership on the opposition’s part.

Reactions from Rivals

The fallout from the Chagos Islands decision has not gone unnoticed by Cleverly’s rivals. Tom Tugendhat, another contender for the leadership, has criticized the negotiations, suggesting they threaten UK security and could allow China to gain a foothold in the Indian Ocean. Tugendhat’s campaign has positioned him as a candidate focused on national security, contrasting with Cleverly’s more conciliatory approach.

Cleverly’s allies, however, have pushed back against the criticism, arguing that the negotiations were initiated under former Prime Minister Liz Truss and that the current Labour leadership is to blame for the deal’s progression. They maintain that Cleverly’s role has been misrepresented and that he is being unfairly targeted as a result of his rising popularity.

The Impact of the Conference

Cleverly’s speech at the conference has been hailed by some as a turning point in his campaign. He called for a more optimistic outlook for the Conservative Party, echoing sentiments reminiscent of former US President Ronald Reagan. His message of unity and forward-thinking resonated with many attendees, leading to a surge in support among grassroots members. Former Chancellor George Osborne noted that Cleverly’s performance stood out, suggesting that he may have emerged as a key player in the leadership race.

However, not all reactions have been positive. Critics have pointed out that Cleverly’s speech lacked originality, with some suggesting that it was a reiteration of past messages that failed to address the party’s current challenges. This mixed reception underscores the complexities of the leadership race, where candidates must balance appealing to party members while also addressing broader national concerns.

The Road Ahead

As the Tory leadership race continues, the upcoming vote on Wednesday will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the candidates. Cleverly’s recent boost in support has positioned him as a serious contender, but the lingering controversy surrounding the Chagos Islands may hinder his momentum. With four candidates still in the running, the dynamics of the race remain fluid, and the outcome is uncertain.

The Conservative Party is at a crossroads, facing internal divisions and external pressures. As members weigh their options, the question remains: who will emerge as the leader capable of uniting the party and addressing the pressing issues facing the UK? Cleverly’s rise may signal a shift in the party’s direction, but whether it translates into lasting support among MPs and members will be revealed in the coming days. The stakes are high, and the race is far from over.