The Uphill Battle for Rejoining the EU: Insights from Anand Menon

The debate surrounding the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union continues to evolve, especially in light of recent discussions at the Labour Movement for Europe’s fringe event in Liverpool. Renowned expert Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, delivered a sobering assessment of the prospects for the UK rejoining the EU, asserting that the nation is moving further away from that goal with each passing day.

The Changing Landscape of the EU

Menon emphasized that the framework of the European Union is not static; it is continually evolving. This dynamic nature makes the prospect of rejoining increasingly complex. He pointed out that the longer the UK remains outside the EU, the more the bloc adapts and changes in ways that may not align with British interests. “The longer we are out, the longer we are not around the table stopping that happening,” he warned, highlighting the risks of being excluded from crucial discussions that shape the future of Europe.

The Costs of Rejoining

One of the most striking points made by Menon was the inherent costs associated with rejoining the Single Market. He argued that while many advocates for rejoining may overlook these costs, they are significant and multifaceted. “Let’s not pretend that Single Market membership doesn’t come with costs because it does,” he stated.

Menon elaborated on the “democratic cost” of being a rule-taker, a situation that Norway manages due to its specific economic structure, primarily reliant on fish and oil. However, for the UK, which has a more diverse economy, the implications of having external entities set the rules governing its economy are both politically and economically problematic. This reality complicates the narrative for those who wish to see the UK rejoin the EU.

Shifting Public Opinion

Despite the challenges, recent opinion polls indicate a notable shift in public sentiment regarding Brexit. Menon acknowledged that while polls show a growing discontent with the decision to leave the EU, there remains a significant gap between the desire for a rerun of the Brexit referendum and the willingness to endure the tumultuous period from 2016 to 2019 again. “If you ask if you’d like a rerun of the period of 2016 to 2019, people gasp with horror,” he noted, suggesting that while many may express a preference for rejoining in theory, the practical implications of revisiting that contentious period deter them.

Economic Implications of Brexit

Menon also addressed the economic ramifications of Brexit, asserting that it has undeniably cost the British economy. He pointed out that while the services sector has managed to weather the storm relatively well, the goods sector has faced significant challenges. “Brexit is having a negative impact on the British economy,” he stated, underscoring the need for an honest discussion about these economic realities, particularly as Labour prepares for Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget speech.

Labour’s Vision for EU Relations

In the context of these discussions, Europe Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds articulated Labour’s commitment to “reset” relations with the EU. He emphasized that rebuilding trust and cooperation with European partners is central to Britain’s standing on the international stage. “More than any single measure, more than any single policy, what we are determined to do is to rebuild a relationship of trust and cooperation with our European partners,” he asserted, reflecting Labour’s strategic approach to navigating the post-Brexit landscape.

Conclusion

Anand Menon’s insights at the Labour Movement for Europe’s event paint a complex picture of the UK’s relationship with the EU. As public opinion shifts and the economic implications of Brexit become increasingly apparent, the path toward rejoining the EU remains fraught with challenges. The evolving nature of the EU, coupled with the costs associated with rejoining, presents a formidable barrier for advocates of a second referendum. As Labour seeks to reset its relationship with the EU, the need for a nuanced understanding of these dynamics has never been more critical. The journey ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the conversation about the UK’s place in Europe is far from over.